I love movies. I don’t watch as many as I want but I do love them. Once upon a time before the Best Picture nominees were 10, I used to watch all of the nominees. So I’ve got a knack about this sort of thing.
I haven’t seen that many of them this year and I admit it which will make this more fun. đ
WRITING
Original Screenplay
My prediction: Moonrise Kingdom Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola.
Why: For whatever reason, this is the category of the Academy awards that likes to encourage the young. You will remember that this is the category that Matt Damon and Ben Affleck won in the the 90s for Good Will Hunting. Also, there’s a Coppola. This was a movie that created its own very particular world and its own particular world view. It has witty dialogue and is more than it appears on first blush. (Hi I’ve actually seen this movie)
Why not Tarantino? Well. I might get punked on this. I would love to see the Tarantino acceptance speech. Strangely enough both Tarantino and Anderson have very strong “views” and heavily borrow from pop culture and other film genres. It’s fascinating to see how they come up with such vastly different products.
WRITING
Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
Written by Tony Kushner
This is the big epic movie nominated. This will be the one that gets it.
ACTRESS
in a Supporting Role
Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables
Why?
Oscar loves to award women who play prostitutes. Oscar also loves to award women who die. Oscar loves to award beautiful women who go through a massive physical change for the role. Seriously. She has this one. She also has won virtually all the awards leading
ACTOR
in a Supporting Role
Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln
Remember when he got nominated against Daniel Day Lewis for No Country for Old Men and lost. Yeah, this is makeup award. I’m rooting for Robert De Niro and he might get it as a pseudo-Lifetime Achievement Award but Lincoln is the more grandiose of the movies. Oscar likes grandiose.
ACTRESS
in a Leading Role
Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
Why? This is the yeah you should have won for Winter’s Bone and here you go again award. Also, Oscar loves crazy.
ACTOR
in a Leading Role
Daniel Day Lewis in Lincoln
Why? Okay I really want Hugh Jackman to win but it is not to be. Daniel Day Lewis is an amazing actor and he has won this award two times before. The Academy already likes him. He managed to pull out a performance of a person who could have very easily been a Caricature and it’s President Lincoln. Dissing on President Lincoln is kicking puppies. I don’t think the Academy will do it.
Best Director in a Motion Picture
Feh. I have no idea. NO really. I think it’s between Ang Lee and Spielburg.
Best Picture
Argo
Why? The torture controversy in Zero Dark Thirty will knock it out. It’s part of history and I think enough people will be “BEN AFFLECK WAS ROBBED” for not being nominated.